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→Possible Scenarios Alternative Scenarios
==Possible Scenarios Alternative Scenarios==
Politically, the collapse of the great Mongol Empire and states is the most obvious result. Other states, such as the Byzantine Empire, could have been weakened and ultimately collapsed due to the Black Death. Thus, one possibility is that the Mongol states could have continued to rule longer, perhaps allowing them to retain great power in many regions. Politically, this could have shaped Russia and China, in particular, differently, where Mongol rulers could have ruled longer and may have more significantly changed the political and social order in those societies. In the Middle East, the presence of the Mongol states and Byzantine Empire could have resulted in making it harder for Turkic groups to migrate and establish power in the region. The Ottoman Empire may have been one of the beneficiaries of the Black Death, which could have meant that they may not been as significant in Middle East affairs otherwise.This could have also meant that wide areas of Anatolia may have remained Christian for centuries later at least if not until today.<ref>For more on the weakening of the Byzantines and rise of the Ottomans, see: Ayalon, Yaron. 2014. Natural Disasters in the Ottoman Empire: Plague, Famine, and Other Misfortunes. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, pg. 48.</ref>
In Africa, the major kingdom of Mali was not affected directly by the Black Death, but trade to it dried up as the Silk Road and other trade routes suffered due to declining trade. This led to its ultimate collapse. Wit the decline of the Mali kingdom, it led to political fragmentation in that part of Africa, possibly weakening that part of the continent for centuries due to political turmoil. Thus we may have seen a larger and more politically united parts of Africa if the Black Death did not occur, potentially making it harder for Europeans centuries later to exploit the continent for the slave trade.<ref>For more on the kingdom of Mali and the Black Death, see: Ramen, Fred. 2002. <i>Sleeping Sickness and Other Parasitic Tropical Diseases.</i> 1st ed. Epidemics. New York: Rosen.</ref>
In Europe, serfdom may have continued in Western Europe for longer periods, limiting the eventual development of political revolutions that occurred centuries later. The gradual increasing individual rights in Western Europe helped to ultimately create the democratic processes in Western states today. In effect, it is possible this could have been delayed if the Black Death did not occur. While in Eastern Europe, including Russia, serfdom became well entrenched and lasted until the 19th century. It is possible population growth could have led to more rapid changes to the serfdom institution, leading to its earlier downfall. Eastern European states, where individual liberties evolved more slowly, could have developed differently if the Black Death did not weaken the peasant population by so much.
