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What if the Black Death Never Occurred

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__NOTOC__[[File:2000px-Bubonic plague-en.svg.png|thumbnail|left|Figure 1. Spread of the Black Death in Europe.]]The Black Death or Bubonic Plague was a wide pandemic event that occurred from 1346–1353 in the Old World, affecting primarily Asia and Europe. It is estimated to have killed more than 30% of Europe's population, while also having a devastating impact on Asian cultures. It is one of the most devastating pandemics in human history and fundamentally changed the course of human events due to the high death rates in many countries and regions. It also remained in societies, reoccurring frequently between the 14-20th centuries in different regions, as the plague never completely diedfaded away. The effects of the Black Death are still felt today, as places had to evolve to much lower populations.
====The World Before the Black Death====Prior to the Black Death, Europe had been facing a social and economic recovery. The population was growing rapidly, having gone from 38 to 74 million people in about 300 years. Learning and economies were beginning to thrive, with the diminished threat of Viking and other raids making commerce active across the continent. In Asia, the Mongols had invaded but trade was beginning to thrive under the <i>Pax-Mongolica</i>. This revived caravan routes and economies from China to the Near East, where the khanates, or Mongol successor states, thrived.<ref>For more on the pre-Black Death World, see: Campbell, Bruce M. S., ed. n.d. <i>[https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0719039274/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0719039274&linkCode=as2&tag=dailyh0c-20&linkId=c887bb9280aae14c3405add16bfb0591 Before the Black Death: Studies in the Crisis of the Early Fourteenth Century].</i> Reprinted in paperback.</ref> In effect, the Old World was becoming more integrated as it had recovered and began to thrive to the changes initiated by the Mongol invasions. Connections again spanned the whole Old World and the Silk Road achieve a peak level of trade activity. Populations were increasing in many parts of the Old World.
====Different Impacts of the Black Death====[[File:The flagellants at Doornik in 1349.jpg|thumbnail|left|250px|Figure 2. People began to question religious authority more openly after the Black Death.]]The Black Death had substantially different impacts on populations and exacerbated social change in many regions. In effectWestern Europe, where populations were generally higher prior to the Black Death, the Old World was becoming more integrated as reduction of the population made the remaining peasants and workers better able to negotiate higher wages (Figure 1). Revolts and rebellions occurred after the plague, but it had recovered and began ultimately helped lead to thrive major social changes. It also led to the death of some of the nobility. Law changes to inheritance, allowing women in particular to inherit, led to gradual gender changes initiated by and increasing power for women in Europe in particular. Serfs also increased their power as their wages went up. In the Mongol invasionslong term, the plague helped stamp out serfdom in Western Europe. Connections again spanned In the whole Old World immediate sense, serfs and nobility often fought in the Silk Road achieve a peak level years after the Black Death, but the lack of trade activityproductivity in farms did help give more powers to peasants in Western Europe. Populations were increasing In effect, the Black Death helped to liberate societies and helped to set the stage for the Renaissance revival that occurred in Europe in many parts the century after the Black Death.<ref>For more on Western Europe after the Black Death, see: Herlihy, David, and Samuel Kline Cohn. 1997. <i>[https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0674076133/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0674076133&linkCode=as2&tag=dailyh0c-20&linkId=569436813dfc847384081edccdef75ff The Black Death and the Transformation of the Old WorldWest].</i> Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press.</ref>
==Different Impacts In Eastern Europe, it had the opposite effect of the Black Death==The Black Death had substantially different impact on populations and exacerbated social change in many regionsstrengthening serfdom. In Western Europethis case, where populations population densities were generally higher prior to much lower, thus revolts that followed the Black Death, the reduction of population made the remaining peasants and were less common. Upper classes simply reinforced their power through laws that tied workers better able to negotiate higher land and limited their wagesand power. Revolts and rebellions occurred after by the plague, but it uliatemly helped lead to peasants only became a major social changes. It also led to problem in the death of some of 16th through the nobility. Law changes to inheritance19th centuries, allowing women serfdom lingered longer in particular to inherit, led to gradual gender changesEastern Europe and did not disappear until the 19th Century. Greater power to serfs as their wages went up also helped, in <ref>For more on the long-term, to finally finish serfdom effects in Western Eastern Europe, see: Ziegler, Philip. In effect, the 2010. <i>The Black Death helped to liberate societies as more power was given to peasants and laborers.</i> Stroud: The History Press Ltd, pg. 85</ref>
In Eastern EuropeWhile two different types of European economic and political systems began to emerge after the Black Death, it had the opposite effect of strengthening serfdomoutcome in the Middle East was very different. In this caseFirst, population densities the cities that were much lowervery populated, such as Cairo and Mosul, lost a huge number of people, thus revolts that followed leading to a de-urbanization in the Black Death were less common. Upper classes simply reinforced their power through laws Near East that tied workers took a long time to land and limited their wages and powerrecover from. Revolts by In Egypt, large areas along the peasants only Nile became a major problem in the 16th through abandoned, contributing to economic decline there that lasted probably until the 19th centuriescentury. In effect, where only during the 1800s Middle East became far weaker politically and economically after the Black Death. In fact, it was serfdom removed not until the 20th century that some cities and regions in Eastern Europethe Middle East reached their Medieval population levels.
While two different types of European economic and political systems began to emerge after the Black Death, in the Middle East a different outcome occurred. First, cities that were very populated, such as Cairo and Mosul, diminished greatly in population, leading to a de-urbanization in the Near East that took a long time to recover from. In Egypt, large areas along the Nile became abandoned, contributing to economic decline there. In effect, the Middle East became far weaker politically and economically after the Black Death. In fact, it was not until the 20th century that some cities and regions in the Middle East reached their Medieval population levels. In east Asia, rebellions eventually broke out against the Mogul ruling dynasty in China (Yüan dynasty). This was aggravated by the plague, where ultimately China regained its independence.The weakening of the Monguls was one of the great results of the Black Death.<ref>For more on changes in Asia due to the Black Death, see: McCracken, Kevin, and David R. Phillips. 2012. <i>Global Health: An Introduction to Current and Future Trends.</i> Abingdon, Oxon ; New York: Routledge, pg. 61. </ref>
In India, the Delhi Sultanate collapsed soon after the plague, suggesting the uproar caused from the plague may have catalyzed this collapse. In Russia, the Golden Horde of the Mongols diminished in power, although it did rise briefly again in the late 1300s. In effect, it also allowed a long-term weakening that eventually allowed Russian-based dynasties to arise that eventually led to the succession of the Romanov dynasty to rule Russia.<ref>For more on the rulers of India and Russia after the Black Death, see: Benedictow, Ole Jørgen. 2006. <i>[https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1843832143/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1843832143&linkCode=as2&tag=dailyh0c-20&linkId=f05260d71b570a058df8cc8a2463b09f The Black Death: 1346 - 1353 ; the Complete History].</i> Repr. in paperback. Woodbridge: Boydell Press, pg. 51.</ref>
Key social changes included an increased understanding of quarantine and its importance in medicine. This now began to be a common practice after the rise of the Black Death plague. Genetic diversity may have also diminished in parts of Asia and Europe, where it could have helped surviving populations develop better immunity (through genetic adaptation).<dh-ad/>
==Possible Scenarios Alternative Scenarios==PoliticallyThe Black Death also fundamentally changed to society. In an outgrowth of the bubonic plague, people began openly challenging religious authorities. Some Europeans began questioning the Catholic Church. It is not an accident that the Reformation began after the collapse outbreak of these plagues in the great Mongol Empire and states is the most obvious result16th century (Figure 2). Other states, such as the Byzantine Empire, could have been weakened key social changes included an increased understanding of quarantine and ultimately collapsed due its importance in medicine. This now began to be a common practice after the rise of the Black Deathplague. Thus, one possibility is that the Mongol states could Genetic diversity may have continued to rule longer, perhaps allowing them to retain great power also diminished in many regions. Politically, this could have shaped Russia parts of Asia and China, in particular, differentlyEurope, where Mongol rulers it could have ruled longer and may have helped surviving populations develop better immunity (through genetic adaptation).<ref>For more significantly changed on population changes after the political Black Death, see: Meneely, Philip. 2017. Genetics: Genes, Genomes, and social order in those societiesEvolution. In the Middle EastNew York, the presence of the Mongol states and Byzantine Empire could have resulted in making it harder for Turkic groups to migrate and establish power in the regionNY: Oxford University Press. The Ottoman Empire may have been one of the beneficiaries of the Black Death, which could have meant that they may not been as significant in Middle East affairs otherwisepg. 172.</ref>
In Africa====Possible Scenarios Alternative Scenarios====Politically, the major kingdom collapse of the great Mongol Empire and its states is the most obvious result of Mali was not affected directly by the Black Deathplague. Other states, but trade to it dried up such as the Silk Road Byzantine Empire, were weakened by plague and other trade routes suffered due ultimately played a role in their collapse. Thus, one possibility is that the Mongol states could have continued to rule longer, perhaps allowing them to declining traderetain power in many regions. This led to its ultimate collapsePolitically, this could have shaped Russia and China, in particular, differently, where Mongol rulers could have ruled longer and potentially have had a more significant impact in the political and social order in those societies. Wit In the Middle East, the decline presence of the Mali kingdom, Mongol states and Byzantine Empire could have resulted in making it led harder for Turkic groups to political fragmentation migrate and establish power in that part the region. The Ottoman Empire was one of Africa, possibly weakening that part the beneficiaries of the continent for centuries due to political turmoilBlack Death because it significantly weakened the Middle East. Thus we Ottoman's influence may have seen a larger and more politically united parts be dramatically lessened in the absence of Africa if the Black Death did not occur, potentially making it harder . This could have also meant that wide areas of Anatolia may have remained Christian for Europeans much longer and perhaps would have lingered to centuries later to exploit the continent for present.<ref>For more on the weakening of the Byzantines and rise of the Ottomans, see: Ayalon, Yaron. 2014. Natural Disasters in the slave tradeOttoman Empire: Plague, Famine, and Other Misfortunes. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, pg. 48.</ref>
==Summary==The In Africa, the major kingdom of Mali was not affected directly by the Black Death affected many societies of the Old World in the 14th century, where but trade to it reoccurred in subsequent centuries dried up as the disease never entirely went awaySilk Road and other trade routes withered as trade declined. This led to its ultimate collapse. HoweverThe decline of the Mali kingdom, its effect was different it led to political fragmentation in various regionsWest Africa, leading possibly weakening that part of the continent for centuries due to some societies to benefit by gaining political turmoil. Thus, we may have seen larger and social freedom, while others collapse or populations became more controlled by ruling classes. The politically united parts of Africa if the Black Death allowed did not occur, potentially making it harder for Europeans centuries later to exploit the continent for the slave trade.<ref>For more on the world to develop differently kingdom of Mali and ultimately change the course of historyBlack Death, see: Ramen, Fred. 2002. <i>Sleeping Sickness and Other Parasitic Tropical Diseases.</i> 1st ed. Epidemics. New York: Rosen.</ref>
In Europe, serfdom may have continued in Western Europe for longer periods, limiting or delaying the eventual development of political revolutions that occurred centuries later. The Renaissance may have begun later than it otherwise may have if the Black Death did not occur. The gradual increase of individual rights in Western Europe pushed states towards democratic processes. In effect, the democratization of Western Europe could have been stalled if the Black Death had not occur. While in Eastern Europe, including Russia, serfdom became well-entrenched and lasted until the 19th century. It is possible population growth could have led to more rapid changes to the serfdom institution, leading to its earlier downfall than it otherwise may have been. Eastern European states, where individual liberties evolved more slowly, could have developed differently if the Black Death did not weaken the peasant population by so much.<ref>For serfdom in Russia, see: Dennison, T. K. 2014. <i>The Institutional Framework of Russian Serfdom.</i> Cambridge University Press. Cambridge.</ref> ====Summary====The Black Death affected many societies of the Old World in the 14th century, where it reoccurred in subsequent centuries as the disease never entirely went away. However, its effect was different in various regions, leading to some societies to benefit by gaining political and social freedom, while others collapse or populations became more controlled by ruling classes. The Black Death allowed the world to develop differently and ultimately change the course of history. Western Europe and the Ottomans gained increasing power as a result of the Black Death, which may have never happened otherwise. In Western Europe, individual liberties and their development may have been one byproduct as well. ====References====<references/> <div class="portal" style='float:left; width:35%'>===Related DailyHistory.org Articles===*[[How did the Bubonic Plague make the Italian Renaissance possible]]*[[Top 10 Books on the origins of the Italian Renaissance]]*[[How did the Renaissance influence the Reformation?]]*[[What were the causes of the Northern Renaissance?]]*[[Why did the Italian Renaissance End?]]</div>[[Category:Wikis]][[Category:Renaissance History]] [[Category:European History]] [[Category:Italian History]] [[Category:Medical History]]{{Contributors}}

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